New York Mets owner Steve Cohen
has invested heavily in the team during the offseason, spending nearly $1 billion on player contracts following their surprising National League Championship Series (NLCS) run last year. The Mets made several high-profile moves, including signing superstar Juan Soto for $765 million and transitioning All-Star reliever Clay Holmes to a starting role with a $38 million contract. They also added pitcher Frankie Montas for $34 million and reliever A.J. Minter, while retaining key players like power-hitting first baseman Pete Alonso ($54 million), starter Sean Manaea ($75 million), and designated hitter Jesse Winker ($7.5 million).
These major financial commitments have pushed the Mets’ projected 2025 payroll to $332 million, surpassing the $301 million luxury tax threshold. As a result, Cohen faces a 110% tax on every dollar above that limit. With such substantial spending, expectations for a deep postseason run are high. However, not everyone is convinced the Mets will deliver.
MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince predicts that, despite their aggressive roster upgrades, the Mets will miss the playoffs in 2025. He argues that if division rivals like the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves remain healthy, their superior pitching staffs give them an edge over the Mets. Castrovince also points out that the National League is highly competitive, making it difficult for New York to secure a Wild Card spot despite their offensive improvements.
One of the primary concerns is the Mets’ pitching rotation. The team lacks a dominant ace after failing to sign Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. Clay Holmes has been named the Opening Day starter, a surprising decision, while 2023 All-Star Kodai Senga will return during the first rotation cycle against the Miami Marlins. Further complicating matters, both Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas will begin the season on the injured list. Manaea is recovering from a strained oblique and is expected to return by mid-to-late April, while Montas is dealing with a serious lat strain that could keep him sidelined until June.
The Mets’ margin for error is small. Last season, they only clinched a playoff spot in Game 161 and benefited from an unusually strong record in one-run games (28-16). Castrovince suggests that, while the Mets’ aggressive front office and Cohen’s willingness to spend could help address early-season injuries or add reinforcements at the trade deadline, there is no guarantee these moves will secure a postseason berth.
FanGraphs projects the Mets to finish the 2025 season with an 86-76 record. If the team fails to make the playoffs despite Cohen’s massive investment, it would be seen as a major failure for a franchise with championship ambitions.
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