Can Bryse Wilson Continue to Have Success in 2023?

Bryse Wilson emerged as an underrated reliever in the baseball scene last season, but the question looms: can he replicate his success, or has he reached the pinnacle of his performance?

Initially developed as a starter, Wilson struggled with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over 115 ⅔ innings with the Pirates in 2022. After being designated for assignment and traded to the Brewers for cash considerations, expectations were modest, with doubts about his roster spot. However, in 2023, following a transition to the bullpen, Wilson exceeded expectations, becoming a reliable long reliever for the Brewers.

His transformation included a significant increase in the use of his cutter, evolving from 72 throws in 2022 to 401 in 2023. The cutter became his standout pitch, contributing to a lowered ERA of 2.58 and an improved WHIP of 1.07. Wilson also made enhancements to his four-seam fastball, turning it from a run value of -10 in 2022 to 5 in 2023. To accommodate these adjustments, he phased out his changeup and completely abandoned his slider.

Despite these improvements, Wilson’s cumulative chase, whiff, and strikeout rates remained in the bottom quartile among qualified pitchers. Notably, his cutter’s strikeout rate was modest at 13.6%, yet its effectiveness was evident in generating soft contact.

Examining the placement of his cutter within the strike zone revealed strategic use, particularly jamming left-handed hitters and avoiding barrels from right-handed hitters. Wilson’s command compensated for his lack of velocity, making this approach successful.

However, the prospect of Wilson replicating his outstanding 2023 performance seems unlikely. Statcast’s xERA for 2023 was 3.98, and projections indicate a potential increase in his ERA to 4.45 in 2024. The FIP of 4.13 suggests a streak of luck in his performance, as his low strikeout rate limits further improvement. Additionally, Wilson’s pitch-to-contact style benefited from a stellar defense, and any regression in the team’s defensive prowess could impact his success.

While the Brewers’ pitching development program is renowned, caution is advised before expecting a repeat of Wilson’s exceptional 2023 season.