Maple Leafs’ escape in Calgary can’t mask the team’s weak spots—and there are plenty.
Many underlying stats speak to mediocrity: the Leafs rank 12th in points percentage, 12th in goal differential, and 14th in projected goals at 5-on-5.
VANCOUVER—If everything goes well, a Thursday game in Calgary in January should not seem like a tightrope walk over a canyon. It shouldn’t take superstar heroism and a video review to escape.
And it was the correct word. The Maple Leafs won 4-3 on Thursday, and it felt like they escaped not only the game, but themselves, after blowing four consecutive leads. It was unmistakably a weight off their shoulders. Perhaps it even cleared some doubts.
“You know, as much as you feel good about the process and how the team is playing, if you don’t get the wins, that does start to build up a little bit,” Leafs defenceman Morgan Rielly said Friday.
“That was a big deal for us,” said winger Tyler Bertuzzi.
“It helps a lot,” said Maple Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe. “There has been a lot of emphasis on our third periods throughout the previous week. So, coming into the third round last night, you wouldn’t have it any other way, right? Let’s try trailing in the third period and see how things go. You want to be in control. You want another chance to get it properly.
This is the Leafs’ story since 1967: Perhaps this year we will get it properly. However, this edition does not appear to be a contending team. One win in Calgary can make a big difference, but it cannot change that.
This star-driven Leafs era has championship hopes, and the team still has stars. Auston Matthews has 23 goals in his last 21 games and is on pace for 71. He is also a defensive devil; he was a towering figure in Calgary, and he took that game and shook it. Mitch Marner was also closer to his old self. Rielly stays a horse, so certain of himself. William Nylander is still on track for 112 points, despite a recent post-contract relaxation.
And there they were, fighting like hell on a wild Thursday night. It wasn’t just the four blown leads, either. Eighteen points in 18 games — ten of which came against San Jose, Anaheim, and Columbus, three of the league’s five worst teams — will accomplish it. A shaky defense, a captain who is beginning to show his age, off-season signings who aren’t adding enough, and a coach who appears to be mashing buttons to keep the plane flying will do that.
Of course, there are doubts. Many underlying numbers go toward mediocrity: The Leafs rank 12th in points %, 12th in goal differential, and 14th in anticipated goals at 5-on-5. Calgary was their 14th regulation win, and they are tied for 24th. The Leafs’ power play is sixth, but they do not draw penalties, and their penalty kill ranks 25th.
There are so many problems: John Tavares’ recent downturn, Bertuzzi’s season-long slump, Max Domi’s season-long scoring slump, goalie when Martin Jones isn’t on fire, and the defense after Rielly and Jake McCabe, honestly. Keefe is attempting to explain why Ryan Reeves, a genuinely awful off-season deal, is still out of the lineup, while John Klingberg is a distant memory.
The stars are still stars. However, this team, which is on track for 99 points, is less robust than previous editions.
Which, basically, explains Keefe’s last several weeks. He combined Matthews, Marner, and Nylander after they were outperformed by Colorado’s studs. He benched Tavares for the first time in his Leafs career, and possibly his whole career. Keefe entirely rewrote his lines, separating Marner from Matthews and Tavares for the first time, and then reversed it. In the Calgary game, he was still yelling at Bertuzzi and Nylander to leave the ice, as TSN analyst Mike Johnson described it, “like they were 10-year-olds.”
And on Wednesday in Calgary, Keefe spoke at what was originally termed as an optional skate, laying down his marker for the year thus far.
“Despite the fact that we’re through the halfway point of the season now — 42 games in — I still have a lot of questions, quite honestly, about who is going to go out and we can say for certain is going to get the job done for us,” the coach added. It felt like he was aware that some fans were shouting for his head.
Keefe said Calgary’s game, in which Toronto shut out the Flames after a potential tying goal was reversed on replay, aided. However, this team should have doubts. Tavares was asked about his slump—five goals in his.
“Well, I’m human too,” Tavares explained. He discussed the confidence he has gained throughout his career, as well as the team’s confidence in this respect; he stated, “I believe confidence is a choice.”
Yes, sometimes. In many past years, the Leafs would experience lulls, typically caused by no-show losses to inferior teams, but you knew they had additional gears. The defining phrase of this Leafs era may have come after a game in Philadelphia where they waited until the third period to play and still won, and Keefe said, “We know what our club is capable of accomplishing. Perhaps that is the problem. (The players) know what they can do.
Does this Leafs club appear to be designed for long-term success? For a playoff series, or two, or three, or four, even if the league is wide open? Does it appear to have more gears, aside from the occasional flashes that are generally propelled by its stars?
Not yet. Perhaps not ever. A Thursday game in Calgary in January should not seem like it has the potential to break things. But perhaps that reveals a lot of what you need to know.
